the importance of speed ratings (continued)

Take a 2m race timed at 30 seconds slower than standard (usually referred to in the form as: a30.00 or -30.00). The going was heavy and the going correction described it as +1.50 seconds per furlong. Using the going correction to allow for the heavy ground, the time will be adjusted by 24 seconds; (2m = 16 furlongs and 16 x +1.50 = +24). The horse's ratings are therefore adjusted upwards on the basis of a time of 6 seconds slower than the standard (-6.00 = -30.00 + 24.00).
Athletes race over similarly constructed level tracks over recognised standard distances such as 1500 metres. These distances are absolutely spot on. If a record has been broken, the track is then measured before the record is validated. Even if the distance is too long, the record is invalid, this is how accurate the distance has got to be. Distances in Flat horseracing have now been accurately measured to the nearest yard. The administrators of National Hunt racing, however, are still locked in the past. If Chepstow can quote a distance of 2m2f33y on the flat, why can the same course only quote distance to the nearest 1/2 furlong in National Hunt? The same applies to all National Hunt courses, not just Chepstow. Perversely, the going is also described differently in National Hunt racing than it is on the Flat. If it is 'yielding' on the Flat it would be described as 'good' in National Hunt. It is common nowadays for horses to race under both codes therefore they will often meet the same ground under different code of racing but find it described as something completely different. The going correction is a fairer description of what the going actually is, and is therefore the most sensible way to proceed.

The methods employed by this program are an essential part of professional race analysis. They compensate for the complacency of others and this clearly gives you an edge - see our N.Hunt results later on. In horseracing generally, we have uphill finishes, races on straights, round bends and non-standard distances such as 1m96y. If horses nearly always ran at the same tracks, the need for standard times would not matter quite as much because they would be running under similar conditions and probably against the same opposition for much of the time. That is not the case in Great Britain where horses are sent all over the country to race on different types of track. The need for standard times is therefore very important.

The program uses The Solidus' own standard times which we consider to be the most accurate because time is our specialism. The resultant rating, which is expressed in terms of pounds, encompasses all the following variables: time, weight, going, distance, course and class.

Everyone in racing talks in terms of pounds, therefore a speed figure that is notin pounds cannot be useful. Racing sense SSR1 is unique in that it is the only system capable measuring all of these very important factors in this way. The program displays'The Solidus' time handicap - the clock rating - as well as a class rating that assess horses moving up or down in class. A true measure of class must take account of time and weight, whereas the official handicap only measures class interms of weight. We want to identify not only the horses that are capable of fast times, but also the ones that can reproduce those times against better opposition.Trainers have been very closely involved in the supply and verification of technical material.

A computer is only as good as its input so you are assured that what the computer outputs is soundly based. Delegate the grind to the computer, it performs all the calculations by using information in its database.The importance of time can be summarised simply by a quote from Davey Towey:'The emotive word, WINNER is an ardent description of a horse that has completed its task in the fastest time'. The strength of Racing sense SSR1 can be summarised such: the accurate rating system available + database.Using the database as a form book. Nearly all form books follow the race-by-race format. We give you this but also the horse-by-horse format. It is extremely useful to be able to see at a glance the horses' form in full. Its strengths and weaknesses can be spotted withrelative ease compared with the race-by-race format where most of the information presented actually concerns other horses which results inside-tracking. The essential features of a good form book are all in the database - over 40 separate items of data displayed and many extras not available in other form books.
An example: the official handicap marks not just for handicap races but for all races - very useful for establishing the class of a race.
There is a value to be had where information is not generally available.Using the database to rate a race. A race can be rated quickly because you only input, at most, 2 items per race and one item per horse. Even this information can be sent via e-mail. We manage this because the essential information is on the database. This is used to make some very intricate calculations as explained in 'The Solidus' book.This is an enormous advantage over other racing software which usually requires the input of many items to which are allocated 'points' to rate the race - this looks hi-tech but is basically an expensive way to produce guesswork. What is required for and accurate system is a common standard to serve as a reference against which all horses' performances can be measured. As fully demonstrated in 'The Solidus', - time is the only reliable yardstick and therefore is used by Racing sense SSR1 to give you the best of both worlds: speed and accuracy.

You have options to display the latest runs or the best runs from the whole season. In addition to the program rating all runners on a speed rating basis, it also assesses the class of the opposition and reports th class rating for each runner if the program considers that there is sufficient information available and it is likely to be significant. On screen help is available from anywhere in the program and a manual is also provided. Results The 'Single Bet' results obtained from our surveys of top-rated selections varied from a minimum of 25% to a maximum of 45% weekly averages. The average overall is about 33%. We think this is an excellent overall average and not top-two as quoted by others but top-rated. There have been many days when the top-rated have gone through the card, that is 100% winners.

Many people regard time as a factor applicable to the Flat only so consider the following N. Hunt results: racing sense SSR1 top-rated 35% (7 from 20) of the Cheltenham Festival winners in previous years including the 3 Championship race winners, to show an overall after tax profit of 27 points at SP.

Previous years, with the addition of Mick Johnson's mathematical input to a betting strategy, a hit rate of 93% has been achieved during one season, with an overall of 66% including 10 winners in a row (Mick Johnson is the computer consultant who wrote all the original Solidus DOS and Racing sense SSR132 Windows versions).